New Seat Details - Mole Valley

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Mole Valley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	35,093	61.9%
LIB	10,953	19.3%
LAB	7,865	13.9%
Green	1,463	2.6%
UKIP	1,356	2.4%
CON Majority	24,140	42.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Mole Valley: Map

List of old seats forming part of Mole Valley

Old seat: Mole Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Mole Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Mole Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Guildford	Clandon and Horsley	6,886	Mole Valley	3,961	538	591	66	78	0	0	0	5,234
Guildford	Effingham	2,089	Mole Valley	936	177	424	44	24	0	0	0	1,605
Guildford	Lovelace	1,884	Mole Valley	889	187	432	19	22	0	0	0	1,549
Guildford	Send	3,409	Mole Valley	1,818	341	320	40	41	0	0	0	2,560
Guildford	Tillingbourne	4,394	Mole Valley	2,385	403	394	39	46	0	0	0	3,267
Mole Valley	Beare Green	1,521	Mole Valley	659	165	252	33	39	0	0	0	1,148
Mole Valley	Bookham North	4,486	Mole Valley	2,205	445	577	91	118	0	0	0	3,436
Mole Valley	Bookham South	4,405	Mole Valley	2,069	443	654	88	108	0	0	0	3,362
Mole Valley	Box Hill and Headley	1,706	Mole Valley	668	160	301	36	29	0	0	0	1,194
Mole Valley	Brockham, Betchworth and Buckland	3,480	Mole Valley	1,658	282	601	65	74	0	0	0	2,680
Mole Valley	Capel, Leigh and Newdigate	3,259	Mole Valley	1,777	322	329	71	88	0	0	0	2,587
Mole Valley	Charlwood	1,751	Mole Valley	966	177	159	40	41	0	0	0	1,383
Mole Valley	Dorking North	3,123	Mole Valley	1,192	424	707	67	99	0	0	0	2,489
Mole Valley	Dorking South	5,346	Mole Valley	2,116	697	1,098	109	163	0	0	0	4,183
Mole Valley	Fetcham East	3,022	Mole Valley	1,571	242	384	61	33	0	0	0	2,291
Mole Valley	Fetcham West	3,109	Mole Valley	1,391	302	688	70	38	0	0	0	2,489
Mole Valley	Holmwoods	4,677	Mole Valley	2,041	733	785	118	136	0	0	0	3,813
Mole Valley	Leatherhead North	4,617	Mole Valley	2,059	1,016	910	119	114	0	0	0	4,218
Mole Valley	Leatherhead South	3,245	Mole Valley	1,688	303	440	72	44	0	0	0	2,547
Mole Valley	Leith Hill	1,312	Mole Valley	641	94	222	16	23	0	0	0	996
Mole Valley	Mickleham, Westhumble and Pixham	1,488	Mole Valley	719	130	281	29	43	0	0	0	1,202
Mole Valley	Okewood	1,437	Mole Valley	835	116	127	28	40	0	0	0	1,146
Mole Valley	Westcott	1,754	Mole Valley	849	168	277	35	22	0	0	0	1,351
	Total	72,400		35,093	7,865	10,953	1,356	1,463	0	0	0	56,730

The full details of these calculations are given on the Mole Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Mole Valley

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Mole Valley
Guildford	Clandon and Horsley	6,878	Mole Valley	3,961	538	591	66	78	0	0	0	5,234
Guildford	Effingham	2,109	Mole Valley	936	177	424	44	24	0	0	0	1,605
Guildford	Lovelace	2,035	Mole Valley	889	187	432	19	22	0	0	0	1,549
Guildford	Send	3,362	Mole Valley	1,818	341	320	40	41	0	0	0	2,560
Guildford	Tillingbourne	4,294	Mole Valley	2,385	403	394	39	46	0	0	0	3,267
Mole Valley	Beare Green	1,510	Mole Valley	659	165	252	33	39	0	0	0	1,148
Mole Valley	Bookham North	4,514	Mole Valley	2,205	445	577	91	118	0	0	0	3,436
Mole Valley	Bookham South	4,419	Mole Valley	2,069	443	654	88	108	0	0	0	3,362
Mole Valley	Box Hill and Headley	1,570	Mole Valley	668	160	301	36	29	0	0	0	1,194
Mole Valley	Brockham, Betchworth and Buckland	3,521	Mole Valley	1,658	282	601	65	74	0	0	0	2,680
Mole Valley	Capel, Leigh and Newdigate	3,400	Mole Valley	1,777	322	329	71	88	0	0	0	2,587
Mole Valley	Charlwood	1,817	Mole Valley	966	177	159	40	41	0	0	0	1,383
Mole Valley	Dorking North	3,270	Mole Valley	1,192	424	707	67	99	0	0	0	2,489
Mole Valley	Dorking South	5,497	Mole Valley	2,116	697	1,098	109	163	0	0	0	4,183
Mole Valley	Fetcham East	3,011	Mole Valley	1,571	242	384	61	33	0	0	0	2,291
Mole Valley	Fetcham West	3,270	Mole Valley	1,391	302	688	70	38	0	0	0	2,489
Mole Valley	Holmwoods	5,010	Mole Valley	2,041	733	785	118	136	0	0	0	3,813
Mole Valley	Leatherhead North	5,542	Mole Valley	2,059	1,016	910	119	114	0	0	0	4,218
Mole Valley	Leatherhead South	3,347	Mole Valley	1,688	303	440	72	44	0	0	0	2,547
Mole Valley	Leith Hill	1,309	Mole Valley	641	94	222	16	23	0	0	0	996
Mole Valley	Mickleham, Westhumble and Pixham	1,579	Mole Valley	719	130	281	29	43	0	0	0	1,202
Mole Valley	Okewood	1,506	Mole Valley	835	116	127	28	40	0	0	0	1,146
Mole Valley	Westcott	1,775	Mole Valley	849	168	277	35	22	0	0	0	1,351
	Total	74,545		35,093	7,865	10,953	1,356	1,463	0	0	0	56,730

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Mole Valley. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Paul Beresford (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	74,545
Turnout:	76.1%

Mole Valley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Mole Valley: Overview

Introduction

Calculation method

Mole Valley: Map

List of old seats forming part of Mole Valley

Old seat: Mole Valley

New seat: Mole Valley